Posts Tagged ‘elections’

Lewisham: A land without Tories?

May 8, 2010

Well, it seems that way at the moment, pending a recount in Grove Park ward.  And one of my predictions was proved wrong as Labour supporters turned out in some numbers to avert the horror of a Conservative Government.

Rise like Lions after slumber
In unvanquishable number,
Shake your chains to earth like dew
Which in sleep had fallen on you –
Ye are many – they are few.

Overall, I managed 1/4, about the same level as my Indo-European homework in Leiden.  What about that Lib Dem in Crofton Park then?  Bizarre…Strange that the polls were right, about the Tories and Labour anyway.

Doing all right so far...

More predictions

What will Clegg do now?

When the capital by the Thames
Forgetting her greatness
Like a drunken prostitute
Does not know who will next have her.

His party won’t allow a coalition with the Tories without PR, which Cameron isn’t going to give him.  And anyway it was a coalition with the Tories in the National Government of 1931 that did for the Liberals originally.  The problem with a Lib/Lab or Lib/Lab/PC/SNP/Green coalition is that they were all losers in the election (with the possible exception of the Greens) and so the arrangement wouldn’t have much legitimacy.

As far as I can see, he has two possible options:

i)   convene a meeting of the parties’ economics teams (as he suggested in one of the TV debates) with the stated aim  of agreeing a programme to tackle the deficit, in the hope of gathering some credit and fishing successfully  in muddy waters;

ii) offer guarded  support to a Tory (or Tory/Unionist) Government from a ‘safe’ distance.  The main thing would be to somehow prevent Cameron from calling a General Election when it suited him…

Update 11 May:  in fact, there are now 2 Tories left in Grove Park.

Polling Day 2010

May 6, 2010

Massive security, and blue netting to show you the way

And this is what I came up with:

Lewisham Deptford

Labour–what this area needs is public spending, and lots of it, added to which Joan Ruddock is by a very long way the most competent of the candidatesPrediction: Labour.

Lewisham Mayor (Alternative Vote)

1.  Green  2.  Lib Dem.  Lewisham Council clearly needs a change.  Prediction: Lib Dem (likely to get in on the second preferences).

Crofton Park Ward

3x Green.  Green councillors have done a good job in neighbouring wards, and there hasn’t been much sign of action from our Labour incumbents.  Prediction: 3x Labour, possibly 3 x Green.

Overall Predictions

A Conservative Government with an overall majority in single figures.  You tend to get the most Tory-friendly outcome that is consistent with the polling evidence or, which is the same thing, the British electorate (those who actually vote) is basically conservative and will vote Conservative if it possibly can.

And given the amount of stuff they’ve put through my door, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Lib Dems in court for exceeding their spending limit.

I still think the best point made in the local campaign is the following from Gemma Townsend (Conservative) on Brockley Central:

4. What will your top priority for Lewisham Deptford be and what are you going to do about it?

Education. I want parents to stay in Lewisham as their family grows and not feel that moving is the only option for decent secondary education.

Although it doesn’t affect me, that’s certainly something I’ve wondered about over the 13 years I’ve lived here.